National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 060246
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
946 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SINK SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN PASSES NEARBY WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING
RESULTED IN A RAPID COOLING FOR SOME RURAL LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES
WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW FORECAST. CONSIDERING GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONTINUING TONIGHT...BLENDED IN 18Z MAV
NUMBERS WHICH RESULTED IN LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER FOR
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO REMARKABLE CHANGES WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...BUT LIGHT NW WINDS WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE W BY MORNING. GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH LOCALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS...BUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS METRO NEW YORK.
THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD WINTER DAY WITH GUSTY W/SW WINDS AND
HIGHS AROUND 50. THERE WILL ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUN IN A DEEP-LAYERED
WESTERLY FLOW. AN NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROF....ORIENTED WEST TO
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...DROPS SE DURING THE PERIOD...SENDING
A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN A TIGHT WESTERLY GRADIENT...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
MON AFT.

WINDS RELAX MON NIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK...WITH THE COLD FRONT LAGGING BACK ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND AND THE UPSTATE OF NY. NO CLOUDS/PCPN EXPECTED WITH
EITHER OF THESE FEATURES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOWER TO MID AT THE COAST/NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...SO
HAVE LEFT OUT POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS TUESDAY
NIGHT DRY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSING NEARBY OR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN SLOWER WITH
THIS...BUT WILL STILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT. PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE.
MODELS SHOWING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUPPORTING
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BASED ON WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON...GUESSING THAT THE PROLONGED TROUGHING
OVER US DURING THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POLAR VORTEX STUCK
IN EASTERN CANADA AS SHOWN BY THE 12Z/05 GFS IS NOT GOING TO PAN
OUT. THEREFORE PREFER A MORE ZONAL SOLUTION ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPING US DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --VFR FOR THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH PUSHES SOUTH...WINDS SHIFT TO A
WESTERLY FLOW...AND AS IT INTERACTS WITH A LOW TO THE
NORTH...EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER NIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED GUSTS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUES THROUGH FRI...

TUES...VFR.

WED-WED NIGHT...POSSIBLE SUB VFR WITH ANY PRECIP.

THURS-FRI...VFR.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A GRADUALLY TIGHTENING WESTERLY GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA
WINDS/SEAS ON MON ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN LI SOUND/BAYS...
AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MON EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

WIND AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS IN TIME FOR TUESDAY
MORNING...SO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN INCREASES ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
ALL WATERS COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...DW

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion